Hloov cov khoom:LME's "luv trap" thiab COMEX's "premium npuas" LME tooj liab cov khoom lag luam tau poob mus rau 138,000 tons, halving txij thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo. Nyob rau saum npoo, qhov no yog ironclad pov thawj ntawm nruj khoom. Tab sis tom qab cov ntaub ntawv, transatlantic "cov khoom xa tuaj tsiv teb tsaws chaw" tab tom tshwm sim: COMEX cov khoom lag luam tooj liab tau nce siab los ntawm 90% hauv ob lub hlis, thaum LME cov khoom lag luam tau txuas ntxiv mus. Qhov kev tsis txaus ntseeg no nthuav tawm qhov tseeb tseem ceeb - kev ua lag luam yog tsim tsim kev tsis txaus hauv cheeb tsam. Cov tub lag luam tau pauv tooj liab los ntawm LME warehouses mus rau Tebchaws Meskas vim yog Trump cov thawj coj nruj ntawm cov nqi hlau. Tus nqi tam sim no ntawm COMEX tooj liab yav tom ntej rau LME tooj liab yog siab li $ 1,321 ib tuj. Tus nqi sib txawv no yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom ntawm "tariff arbitrage": speculators bet tias Teb Chaws Asmeskas tej zaum yuav tariffs rau tooj liab ntshuam nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, thiab nkoj hlau mus rau lub tebchaws United States ua ntej xauv nyob rau hauv tus nqi. Qhov kev ua haujlwm no zoo ib yam li "Tsingshan Nickel" xwm txheej hauv 2021. Thaum lub sijhawm ntawd, LME cov khoom lag luam npib tsib xee tau raug sau ntau thiab xa mus rau cov tsev khaws khoom Asian, ncaj qha ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam luv luv. Niaj hnub no, qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm LME tshem tawm cov ntawv txais nyiaj hauv tsev tseem yog siab li 43%, uas txhais tau hais tias ntau tooj liab raug xa tawm ntawm lub tsev rau khoom. Thaum cov tooj liab no ntws mus rau hauv COMEX warehouse, lub npe hu ua "supply shortage" yuav vau tam sim ntawd.
Txoj cai ceeb: Trump's "tariff stick" cuam tshuam kev lag luam li cas?
Trump qhov kev txav mus los nce nqi txhuas thiab hlau rau 50% tau dhau los ua lub fuse uas ua rau muaj kev ntshai ntawm tus nqi tooj liab. Txawm hais tias tooj liab tseem tsis tau suav nrog hauv daim ntawv teev npe, kev ua lag luam tau pib "rhiab" qhov xwm txheej phem tshaj plaws. Qhov kev ntshai kev yuav tus cwj pwm no tau ua rau txoj cai ua rau nws tus kheej ua tiav cov lus faj lem. Qhov kev sib sib zog nqus tob dua yog tias Tebchaws Meskas tsuas yog tsis tuaj yeem them tus nqi ntawm kev cuam tshuam cov khoom siv tooj liab. Raws li ib qho ntawm cov neeg siv khoom siv tooj liab loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb, Tebchaws Meskas yuav tsum tau xa 3 lab tons ntawm refined tooj liab txhua xyoo, thaum nws cov khoom siv hauv tsev tsuas yog 1 lab tons. Yog tias cov nqi se raug txwv rau tooj liab, kev lag luam hauv qab xws li tsheb thiab hluav taws xob yuav kawg them tus nqi. Txoj cai "tua tus kheej hauv ko taw" txoj cai no yog qhov tseem ceeb tsuas yog ib qho kev sib txuas lus rau kev ua si nom tswv, tab sis nws tau txhais los ntawm kev ua lag luam raws li qhov tsis zoo.
Kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev xa khoom: Puas yog kev ncua kev tsim khoom hauv Democratic Republic of Congo yog "dub swan" lossis "daim ntawv tsov"?
Kev ncua luv luv ntawm kev tsim khoom ntawm Kakula tooj liab mine nyob rau hauv Democratic Republic of the Congo tau exaggerated los ntawm bulls raws li ib tug piv txwv ntawm muaj teeb meem khoom. Txawm li cas los xij, nws yuav tsum raug sau tseg tias mine cov khoom tsim tawm hauv xyoo 2023 tsuas yog suav txog 0.6% ntawm lub ntiaj teb tag nrho, thiab Ivanhoe Mines tau tshaj tawm tias nws yuav rov pib dua lub hlis no. Piv nrog rau cov xwm txheej tam sim no, dab tsi tsim nyog ntawm kev ceev faj yog qhov kev xa khoom mus sij hawm ntev: qib tooj liab thoob ntiaj teb tseem poob qis, thiab kev loj hlob ntawm cov phiaj xwm tshiab yog ntev li 7-10 xyoo. Qhov no yog qhov nruab nrab- thiab lub sij hawm ntev logic txhawb tus nqi tooj liab. Txawm li cas los xij, kev ua lag luam tam sim no tau poob rau hauv qhov tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm "kev kwv yees luv luv" thiab "tus nqi mus sij hawm ntev". Cov nyiaj tau txais txiaj ntsig siv txhua qhov kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom siv los tsim kev ntshai, tab sis tsis quav ntsej txog qhov tseem ceeb sib txawv-Tuam Tshoj cov khoom muag zais. Raws li CRU kev kwv yees, Tuam Tshoj thaj chaw sib koom ua ke thiab cov khoom lag luam tsis raug cai tuaj yeem tshaj 1 lab tons, thiab qhov no ntawm "undercurrent" yuav dhau los ua "kev nyab xeeb valve" kom ruaj khov tus nqi txhua lub sijhawm.
Tus nqi tooj liab: taug kev ib txoj hlua khi ntawm luv nyem thiab tawg
Technically, tom qab tus nqi tooj liab tsoo los ntawm cov theem tseem ceeb, cov tub ua lag luam xws li CTA cov nyiaj tau nrawm dua lawv cov kev nkag, tsim cov lus qhia zoo ntawm "nce-luv nres-nce ntxiv". Txawm li cas los xij, qhov no nce raws li lub zog ua lag luam feem ntau xaus rau "V-zoo li thim rov qab". Thaum qhov kev cia siab ntawm tariff poob los yog cov khoom muag hloov pauv kev ua si xaus, tus nqi tooj liab yuav ntsib kev kho kom zoo. Rau kev lag luam, tam sim no tus nqi siab ib puag ncig yog distorting lub pricing mechanism: lub LME qhov chaw luv nqi rau lub Peb Hlis tooj liab tau nthuav dav, xav txog lub cev tsis muaj zog yuav; thaum lub lag luam COMEX yog tus thawj los ntawm cov nyiaj kwv yees, thiab cov nqi tau cuam tshuam loj heev. Cov qauv kev lag luam sib cais no thaum kawg yuav raug them los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom kawg-tag nrho cov kev lag luam uas vam khom tooj liab, los ntawm cov tsheb hluav taws xob mus rau cov chaw khaws ntaub ntawv, yuav raug nqi siab.
Cov ntsiab lus: Ceev faj ntawm "hlau carnival" yam tsis muaj kev txhawb nqa thiab kev thov
Nyob rau hauv qhov kev zoo siab ntawm tus nqi tooj liab tawg los ntawm trillion-duas cim, peb yuav tsum xav ntau calmly: thaum tus nqi nce yog sib nrauj los ntawm qhov kev thov tiag tiag thiab thaum cov khoom muag ua si hloov cov logic, hom "kev vam meej" yog destined los ua ib tug pej thuam ua rau cov xuab zeb. Trump tus tariff stick tej zaum yuav muaj peev xwm leverage tus nqi luv luv, tab sis dab tsi tiag tiag txiav txim siab txoj hmoo ntawm tus nqi tooj liab tseem yog lub plawv dhia ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb. Nyob rau hauv qhov kev ua si ntawm peev thiab cov chaw, nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb kom nyob twj ywm tsis xis nyob dua li mus caum npuas.
Post lub sij hawm: Jun-07-2025