Abstract:Qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau yog ib qho ntawm cov laj thawj uas ua rau cov nqi npib tsib xee, tab sis tom qab qhov kev lag luam hnyav, ntau qhov kev xav hauv kev lag luam yog "bulk" (coj los ntawm Glencore) thiab "kho" (tsuas yog los ntawm Tsingshan Group). .
Tsis ntev los no, nrog kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm Russia thiab Ukraine raws li lub fuse, LME (London Hlau Txauv) npib tsib xee yav tom ntej tau tawg tawm hauv kev ua lag luam "epic".
Qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev xav tau yog ib qho ntawm cov laj thawj uas ua rau cov nqi npib tsib xee, tab sis tom qab qhov kev lag luam hnyav, ntau qhov kev xav hauv kev lag luam yog tias cov peev nyiaj ntawm ob sab yog "bull" (coj los ntawm Glencore) thiab " khoob" (tsuas yog los ntawm Tsingshan Group).
LME nickel ua lag luam ncua sij hawm tiav
Thaum Lub Peb Hlis 7, tus nqi LME npib tsib xee tau nce los ntawm US $ 30,000 / ton (qhib nqi) mus txog US $ 50,900 / ton (tus nqi daws teeb meem), ib hnub nce li ntawm 70%.
Thaum Lub Peb Hlis 8, LME cov nqi npib tsib xee txuas ntxiv nce siab, nce mus rau qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm US $ 101,000 / ton, thiab tom qab ntawd poob rov qab rau US $ 80,000 / ton. Hauv ob hnub ua lag luam, LME nickel tus nqi tau nce ntau li 248%.
Thaum 4:00 teev tsaus ntuj thaum Lub Peb Hlis 8, LME tau txiav txim siab ncua kev lag luam ntawm nickel yav tom ntej thiab ncua kev xa khoom ntawm txhua qhov chaw nickel daim ntawv cog lus thawj zaug tau teem caij xa tuaj rau lub Peb Hlis 9.
Thaum Lub Peb Hlis 9, Tsingshan Group tau teb tias nws yuav hloov cov hlau npib tsib xee hauv tsev nrog nws lub siab matte npib tsib xee phaj, thiab tau faib chaw txaus rau kev xa khoom los ntawm ntau txoj hauv kev.
Thaum Lub Peb Hlis 10, LME tau hais tias nws tau npaj los daws cov haujlwm ntev thiab luv ua ntej rov qhib kev lag luam npib tsib xee, tab sis ob tog tsis teb qhov zoo.
Txij lub Peb Hlis 11 txog 15, LME nickel txuas ntxiv raug ncua.
Thaum Lub Peb Hlis 15, LME tshaj tawm tias daim ntawv cog lus nickel yuav rov pib ua lag luam rau lub Peb Hlis 16 lub sijhawm hauv zos. Tsingshan Group tau hais tias nws yuav koom tes nrog kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov peev txheej qiv nyiaj rau Tsingshan cov npib tsib xee tuav cov paj thiab cov kev xav tau daws teeb meem.
Nyob rau hauv luv luv, Russia, raws li ib tug tseem ceeb exporter ntawm npib tsib xee cov kev pab cuam, raug txiav txim vim yog lub Lavxias teb sab-Ukrainian tsov rog, ua rau lub inability ntawm Lavxias teb sab npib tsib xee xa mus rau lub LME, superimposed rau ntau yam xws li tsis muaj peev xwm mus ntxiv nickel cov kev pab nyob rau hauv. Cov Neeg Esxias sab hnub tuaj raws sijhawm raws sijhawm, Tsingshan Group qhov khoob kev txiav txim rau kev tiv thaiv yuav tsis tuaj yeem xa tuaj raws sijhawm, uas tsim muaj kev sib txuas lus.
Muaj ntau yam cim qhia tias qhov kev tshwm sim hu ua "luv nyem" tseem tsis tau xaus, thiab kev sib txuas lus thiab kev ua si ntawm cov neeg koom nrog ntev thiab luv luv, LME, thiab cov tuam txhab nyiaj txiag tseem txuas ntxiv mus.
Siv qhov no raws li lub sijhawm, kab lus no yuav sim teb cov lus nug hauv qab no:
1. Vim li cas nickel hlau ua qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev ua si peev?
2. Puas yog cov khoom siv nickel txaus?
3. Ntau npaum li cas tus nqi npib tsib xee yuav nce ntxiv rau kev lag luam tsheb tshiab?
Nickel rau lub hwj chim roj teeb ua ib tug tshiab txoj kev loj hlob ncej
Nrog rau txoj kev loj hlob sai ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no, superimposed tus qauv ntawm high nickel thiab qis cobalt nyob rau hauv ternary lithium roj teeb, npib tsib xee rau lub hwj chim roj teeb tau dhau los ua ib tug tshiab txoj kev loj hlob ncej ntawm nickel noj.
Kev lag luam kwv yees hais tias los ntawm 2025, lub ntiaj teb no lub hwj chim ternary roj teeb yuav suav txog li 50%, ntawm cov high-nickel ternary roj teeb yuav suav tau ntau dua 83%, thiab feem ntawm 5-series ternary roj teeb yuav poob qis dua 17%. Qhov kev thov rau npib tsib xee kuj tseem yuav nce los ntawm 66,000 tons hauv 2020 txog 620,000 tons hauv 2025, nrog rau qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm 48% hauv plaub xyoos tom ntej.
Raws li kev kwv yees, lub ntiaj teb kev thov rau npib tsib xee rau cov roj teeb hluav taws xob tseem yuav nce los ntawm tsawg dua 7% tam sim no mus rau 26% hauv 2030.
Raws li tus thawj coj thoob ntiaj teb hauv lub zog tshiab, Tesla tus cwj pwm "nickel hoarding" yuav luag vwm. Tesla CEO Musk kuj tau hais ntau zaus tias cov khoom siv nickel yog Tesla lub fwj loj tshaj plaws.
Gaogong Lithium tau pom tias txij li xyoo 2021, Tesla tau koom tes nrog Fabkis New Caledonia mining tuam txhab Proni Resources, Australian mining giant BHP Billiton, Brazil Vale, Canadian mining tuam txhab Giga Hlau, American miner Talon Metals, thiab lwm yam. Ntau lub tuam txhab mining tau kos npe. ntau daim ntawv cog lus muab khoom mus sij hawm ntev rau nickel concentrates.
Tsis tas li ntawd, cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv kev lag luam roj teeb hluav taws xob xws li CATL, GEM, Huayou Cobalt, Zhongwei, thiab Tsingshan Group kuj tau nce lawv txoj kev tswj hwm cov peev txheej nickel.
Qhov no txhais tau hais tias kev tswj cov khoom siv nickel yog sib npaug rau kev paub txog daim pib mus rau trillion-duas khiav.
Glencore yog lub ntiaj teb cov khoom lag luam loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb thiab yog ib lub ntiaj teb cov neeg siv khoom loj tshaj plaws thiab cov txheej txheem ntawm cov khoom siv nickel, nrog rau cov ntaub ntawv ntawm nickel ntsig txog kev ua haujlwm mining hauv Canada, Norway, Australia thiab New Coledonia. cov khoom muaj nqis. Hauv 2021, lub tuam txhab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm npib tsib xee yuav yog US $ 2.816 billion, ib xyoos ib zaug nce li ntawm 20%.
Raws li LME cov ntaub ntawv, txij li Lub Ib Hlis 10, 2022, qhov feem pua ntawm nickel yav tom ntej warehouse receipts tuav los ntawm ib tus neeg siv khoom tau maj mam nce los ntawm 30% mus rau 39%, thiab thaum pib lub Peb Hlis, qhov feem pua ntawm tag nrho cov khoom tau txais tau tshaj 90% .
Raws li qhov loj no, kev ua lag luam kwv yees tias cov bulls hauv qhov kev ua si luv luv no feem ntau yuav yog Glencore.
Ntawm qhov tod tes, Tsingshan Group tau tawg los ntawm kev npaj thev naus laus zis ntawm "NPI (nickel npua hlau los ntawm cov xuab zeb nickel ore) - siab nickel matte", uas tau txo tus nqi zoo heev thiab xav tias yuav ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm npib tsib xee sulfate ntawm cov nickel ntshiab. (nrog cov ntsiab lus npib tsib xee tsis tsawg dua 99.8%, tseem hu ua thawj npib tsib xee).
Ntawm qhov tod tes, 2022 yuav yog xyoo uas qhov project tshiab ntawm Tsingshan Group hauv Indonesia yuav muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm. Tsingshan muaj kev cia siab rau kev loj hlob zoo rau nws tus kheej lub peev xwm tsim khoom. Thaum Lub Peb Hlis 2021, Tsingshan tau kos npe rau daim ntawv cog lus siab nickel matte nrog Huayou Cobalt thiab Zhongwei Co., Ltd. Tsingshan yuav muab 60,000 tons ntawm nickel matte siab rau Huayou Cobalt thiab 40,000 tons rau Zhongwei Co., Ltd. hauv ib xyoos txij lub Kaum Hli 2021. . High nickel matte.
Nws yuav tsum tau taw qhia tias LME cov kev cai rau cov khoom xa khoom nickel yog npib tsib xee ntshiab, thiab siab matte npib tsib xee yog cov khoom nruab nrab uas tsis tuaj yeem siv rau kev xa khoom. Qingshan ntshiab npib tsib xee yog mas los ntawm Russia. Lavxias teb sab npib tsib xee raug txwv los ntawm kev lag luam vim yog kev ua tsov rog Lavxias-Ukrainian, ua rau lub ntiaj teb cov khoom lag luam tsis tshua muaj npib tsib xee, uas ua rau Qingshan nyob rau hauv qhov txaus ntshai ntawm "tsis muaj khoom los kho".
Nws yog qhov tseeb vim qhov no tias qhov kev ua si luv luv ntawm nickel hlau yog imminent.
Ntiaj teb no nickel reserves thiab muab khoom
Raws li United States Geological Survey (USGS), txog rau thaum xaus ntawm 2021, ntiaj teb no npib tsib xee reserves (ua pov thawj reserves ntawm av-raws li deposits) yog hais txog 95 lab tons.
Ntawm lawv, Indonesia thiab Australia muaj txog 21 lab tons raws li, suav txog 22%, qeb thib ob; Brazil suav txog 17% ntawm nickel reserves ntawm 16 lab tons, qeb thib peb; Russia thiab Philippines suav txog 8% thiab 5% feem. %, qeb plaub lossis thib tsib. TOP5 lub teb chaws suav txog 74% ntawm cov khoom siv nickel thoob ntiaj teb.
Tuam Tshoj cov nickel reserves yog kwv yees li 2.8 lab tons, suav txog 3%. Raws li cov neeg siv khoom loj ntawm cov khoom siv nickel, Tuam Tshoj muaj kev vam khom rau kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom siv nickel, nrog tus nqi ntshuam ntau dua 80% rau ntau xyoo.
Raws li qhov xwm txheej ntawm ore, npib tsib xee ore feem ntau muab faib ua npib tsib xee sulfide thiab tom qab npib tsib xee, nrog rau qhov sib piv ntawm 6: 4. Lub qub yog nyob rau hauv Australia, Russia thiab lwm cheeb tsam, thiab lub tom kawg yog nyob rau hauv Indonesia, Brazil, Philippines thiab lwm cheeb tsam.
Raws li daim ntawv thov kev lag luam, qhov kev xav tau ntawm cov npib tsib xee feem ntau yog kev tsim cov hlau tsis muaj steel, alloys thiab cov roj teeb fais fab. Stainless hlau suav txog li 72%, alloys thiab castings suav txog li 12%, thiab nickel rau roj teeb yog li 7%.
Yav dhau los, muaj ob txoj kev xa khoom ywj pheej hauv cov khoom siv nickel: "latterite nickel-nickel npua hlau / nickel hlau-stainless steel" thiab "nickel sulfide-nickel-nickel-teeb roj teeb nickel".
Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cov khoom siv thiab kev thov kev lag luam ntawm npib tsib xee kuj maj mam ntsib qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov qauv. Ntawm ib sab, ntau tus nickel npua hlau tej yaam num uas tsim los ntawm cov txheej txheem RKEF tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm, uas ua rau cov txheeb ze ntawm npib tsib xee npua hlau; ntawm qhov tod tes, tau tsav los ntawm txoj kev loj hlob sai ntawm cov tsheb tshiab lub zog, cov roj teeb kev loj hlob ntawm cov npib tsib xee tau ua rau cov txheeb ze tsis txaus ntawm cov nickel ntshiab.
Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm World Bureau of Metal Statistics tsab ntawv ceeb toom qhia tias yuav muaj ntau tshaj 84,000 tons ntawm npib tsib xee hauv xyoo 2020. Pib xyoo 2021, kev thov nickel thoob ntiaj teb yuav nce siab. Kev muag khoom ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb tau tsav kev loj hlob ntawm marginal noj ntawm npib tsib xee, thiab cov khoom tsis txaus nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no nickel kev ua lag luam yuav ncav cuag 144,300 tons hauv 2021.
Txawm li cas los xij, nrog kev ua tiav ntawm cov khoom siv nruab nrab ntawm cov khoom lag luam, cov txheej txheem saum toj no tau hais txog ob txoj kev xa khoom tau tawg. Ua ntej, low-grade ore ore tuaj yeem tsim cov nickel sulfate los ntawm cov khoom ntub dej nruab nrab ntawm cov txheej txheem HPAL; Thib ob, qib siab tom qab ore tuaj yeem tsim cov npib tsib xee npua hlau los ntawm RKEF pyrotechnic txheej txheem, thiab tom qab ntawd dhau los ntawm kev hloov tshuab tshuab los tsim cov qib siab nickel matte, uas dhau los ua cov nickel sulfate. Nws paub txog qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm cov ntawv thov tom qab nickel ore hauv kev lag luam hluav taws xob tshiab.
Tam sim no, cov haujlwm tsim khoom siv HPAL thev naus laus zis suav nrog Ramu, Moa, Coral Bay, Taganito, thiab lwm yam. Tib lub sijhawm, Qingmeibang project nqis peev los ntawm CATL thiab GEM, Huayue nickel-cobalt project nqis peev los ntawm Huayou Cobalt, thiab Huafei npib tsib xee. -cobalt project nqis peev los ntawm Yiwei yog tag nrho cov txheej txheem HPAL.
Tsis tas li ntawd, qhov kev ua haujlwm siab nickel matte coj los ntawm Tsingshan Group tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm, uas tseem qhib qhov sib txawv ntawm cov npib tsib xee thiab npib tsib xee sulfate, thiab paub txog kev hloov pauv ntawm npib tsib xee npua hlau ntawm stainless hlau thiab lub zog tshiab kev lag luam.
Lub ntsiab lus ntawm kev lag luam yog tias nyob rau lub sij hawm luv luv, qhov kev tso tawm ntawm cov nickel matte ntau lawm muaj peev xwm tseem tsis tau mus txog qhov loj ntawm easing cov khoom sib txawv ntawm cov khoom nickel, thiab kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom siv nickel sulfate tseem nyob ntawm kev ua kom cov npib tsib xee zoo li qub. nickel taum / nickel hmoov. tuav txoj kev muaj zog.
Nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm ntev, kev noj cov nickel nyob rau hauv ib txwm teb xws li stainless hlau tau tuav ruaj khov kev loj hlob, thiab cov qauv ntawm kev loj hlob sai nyob rau hauv lub teb ntawm ternary hwj chim roj teeb yog tej yam. Lub peev xwm ntau lawm ntawm "nickel npua hlau-siab nickel matte" qhov project tau raug tso tawm, thiab HPAL txheej txheem yuav nkag mus rau lub sijhawm tsim khoom loj hauv 2023. Qhov kev thov tag nrho rau cov khoom siv nickel yuav tuav nruj sib npaug ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau hauv cov khoom siv. yav tom ntej.
Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm nickel nqi hike rau lub lag luam tshiab lub zog tsheb
Qhov tseeb, vim yog tus nqi npib tsib xee skyrocketing, Tesla's Model 3 high-performance version thiab Model Y lub neej ntev, high-kev ua tau zoo version siv high-nickel roj teeb muaj ob qho tib si nce los ntawm 10,000 yuan.
Raws li txhua GWh ntawm high-nickel ternary lithium roj teeb (noj NCM 811 ua piv txwv), 750 hlau tons ntawm nickel yuav tsum tau, thiab txhua GWh ntawm nruab nrab thiab qis nickel (5 series, 6 series) ternary lithium roj teeb yuav tsum tau 500-600 hlau tons ntawm nickel. Tom qab ntawd tus nqi ntawm nickel nce los ntawm 10,000 yuan ib tonnes hlau, uas txhais tau hais tias tus nqi ntawm ternary lithium roj teeb ib GWh nce li ntawm 5 lab yuan rau 7.5 lab yuan.
Kev kwv yees ntxhib yog tias thaum tus nqi npib tsib xee yog US $ 50,000 / ton, tus nqi ntawm Tesla Model 3 (76.8KWh) yuav nce 10,500 yuan; thiab thaum tus nqi nickel nce mus txog US $ 100,000 / ton, tus nqi ntawm Tesla Model 3 yuav nce ntxiv. Kev nce ntawm ze li ntawm 28,000 yuan.
Txij li xyoo 2021, kev muag khoom thoob ntiaj teb ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb tau nce, thiab kev lag luam nkag mus rau cov roj teeb nickel siab nickel tau nrawm dua.
Tshwj xeeb, cov qauv high-end ntawm cov tsheb hluav taws xob txawv teb chaws feem ntau tau txais cov txheej txheem thev naus laus zis siab nickel, uas tau ua rau muaj peev xwm nce siab ntawm cov roj teeb nickel hauv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, suav nrog CATL, Panasonic, LG Zog, Samsung SDI, SKI thiab lwm lub tuam txhab roj teeb ua lag luam hauv Suav teb, Nyiv thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb.
Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev cuam tshuam, ntawm ib sab, tam sim no hloov dua siab tshiab ntawm npib tsib xee npua hlau mus rau siab matte npib tsib xee tau coj mus rau qhov kev tso tawm qeeb ntawm qhov project tsim muaj peev xwm vim kev lag luam tsis txaus. Cov nqi npib tsib xee txuas ntxiv nce ntxiv, uas yuav txhawb nqa lub peev xwm ntawm Indonesia lub siab nickel matte tej yaam num kom ceev cov zis.
Ntawm qhov tod tes, vim cov khoom siv nce nqi, lub zog tshiab tsheb tau pib nce nqi sib sau ua ke. Kev lag luam feem ntau txhawj xeeb tias yog tias tus nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv npib tsib xee txuas ntxiv ferment, kev tsim khoom thiab muag khoom ntawm high-nickel qauv ntawm lub zog tshiab yuav nce lossis txwv rau xyoo no.
Post lub sij hawm: Apr-12-2022