Abstract:Txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo pua tshiab, nrog rau kev ua haujlwm tsis tu ncua ntawm cov khoom siv nickel kev lag luam thiab kev loj hlob sai ntawm kev lag luam hluav taws xob tshiab, lub ntiaj teb nickel kev lag luam qauv tau hloov pauv loj, thiab cov tuam txhab nyiaj txiag hauv Suav teb tau ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev txhawb nqa. kev hloov kho ntawm lub ntiaj teb nickel kev lag luam qauv.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, nws kuj tau ua haujlwm zoo rau kev ruaj ntseg ntawm lub ntiaj teb cov khoom siv nickel.
Kev hwm kev lag luam thiab hwm kev lag luam - Yuav ua li cas txhim kho kev ruaj ntseg ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv nickel los ntawm "Nickel Futures Incident"
Txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo pua tshiab, nrog rau kev tsis tu ncua ntawm nickel kev lag luam khoom siv thev naus laus zis thiab kev loj hlob sai ntawm kev lag luam hluav taws xob tshiab, lub ntiaj teb nickel kev lag luam qauv tau hloov pauv loj, thiab cov tuam txhab nyiaj txiag hauv Suav teb tau ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv txhawb kev hloov kho ntawm lub ntiaj teb nickel kev lag luam qauv.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, nws kuj tau ua haujlwm zoo rau kev ruaj ntseg ntawm lub ntiaj teb cov khoom siv nickel.Tab sis tus nqi ntawm London nickel yav tom ntej hauv lub Peb Hlis xyoo no tau nce los ntawm qhov tsis tau muaj dua 248% hauv ob hnub, ua rau muaj kev puas tsuaj loj rau cov tuam txhab tiag tiag suav nrog Tuam Tshoj.Txog rau qhov kawg no, los ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm cov qauv ntawm kev lag luam npib tsib xee hauv xyoo tas los no, ua ke nrog "nickel yav tom ntej teeb meem", tus sau tham txog yuav ua li cas txhim kho kev ruaj ntseg ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv nickel.
Kev hloov pauv hauv ntiaj teb kev lag luam nickel qauv
Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev siv scale, nickel noj tau nthuav dav sai, thiab Tuam Tshoj yog lub ntsiab contributor rau ntiaj teb no nickel noj.Raws li kev txheeb cais ntawm Nickel Industry Ceg ntawm Tuam Tshoj Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, xyoo 2021, lub ntiaj teb thawj nickel noj yuav ncav cuag 2.76 lab tons, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 15.9% thiab 1.5 npaug ntawm kev noj hauv 2001. Ntawm lawv, nyob rau hauv 2021, Tuam Tshoj tus raw nickel noj yuav ncav cuag 1.542 lab tons, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo nce ntawm 14%, 18 npaug ntawm kev noj nyob rau hauv 2001, thiab kev faib ua feem ntawm lub ntiaj teb no noj tau nce los ntawm 4.5% nyob rau hauv 2001 mus rau tam sim no 56. %.Nws tuaj yeem hais tias 90% ntawm qhov nce hauv ntiaj teb nickel noj txij thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo pua tshiab tuaj ntawm Tuam Tshoj.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov qauv siv, stainless hlau noj yog qhov ruaj khov, thiab qhov feem ntawm cov nickel siv nyob rau hauv lub roj teeb teb tseem nce ntxiv.Nyob rau hauv ob xyoos dhau los, lub zog tshiab sector yog coj txoj kev loj hlob ntawm lub ntiaj teb no thawj nickel noj.Raws li kev txheeb cais, xyoo 2001, nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj tus nickel noj qauv, npib tsib xee rau stainless hlau accounted li 70%, npib tsib xee rau electroplating accounted rau 15%, thiab npib tsib xee rau roj teeb accounted tsuas yog 5%.Los ntawm 2021, qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm nickel siv nyob rau hauv stainless hlau nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj tus nickel noj yuav yog li ntawm 74%;qhov feem ntawm cov nickel siv hauv cov roj teeb yuav nce mus rau 15%;Qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm nickel siv hauv electroplating yuav poob mus rau 5%.Nws yeej tsis tau pom tias thaum lub zog tshiab kev lag luam nkag mus rau hauv txoj kab nrawm, qhov kev thov rau nickel yuav nce ntxiv, thiab qhov feem pua ntawm cov roj teeb hauv cov qauv siv yuav nce ntxiv.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov qauv ntawm cov khoom siv raw, cov khoom siv nickel tau hloov pauv los ntawm cov nickel sulfide ore feem ntau mus rau tom qab nickel ore thiab npib tsib xee sulfide ore sib koom ua ke.Cov khoom siv nickel yav dhau los yog cov nickel sulfide ore uas muaj ntau lub ntiaj teb cov peev txheej, thiab cov khoom siv nickel sulfide feem ntau yog nyob hauv Australia, Canada, Russia, Tuam Tshoj thiab lwm lub teb chaws, suav txog ntau dua 50% ntawm tag nrho lub ntiaj teb nickel reserves thaum lub sijhawm ntawd.Txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo pua tshiab, nrog rau daim ntawv thov thiab kev txhawb nqa ntawm latex nickel ore-nickel-hlau thev naus laus zis hauv Suav teb, tom qab nickel ore hauv Indonesia thiab Philippines tau tsim thiab siv rau ntawm qhov loj.Xyoo 2021, Indonesia yuav dhau los ua tus tsim cov nickel loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb, uas yog qhov tshwm sim los ntawm kev sib xyaw ntawm Suav thev naus laus zis, peev thiab nyiaj txiag Indonesian.Kev koom tes ntawm Tuam Tshoj thiab Indonesia tau ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb rau txoj kev vam meej thiab kev ruaj ntseg ntawm lub ntiaj teb nickel mov saw.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov qauv khoom, cov khoom siv nickel hauv kev ncig yog tsim los ntawm kev sib txawv.Raws li kev txheeb cais ntawm Nickel Industry Branch, xyoo 2001, nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no thawj nickel ntau lawm, refined nickel accounted rau lub ntsiab txoj hauj lwm, nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd, ib feem me me yog npib tsib xee ferronickel thiab nickel ntsev;los ntawm 2021, nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no thawj nickel ntau lawm, refined nickel ntau lawm accounted rau Nws tau poob mus rau 33%, thaum lub feem ntau ntawm NPI (nickel npua hlau) npib tsib xee-muaj ntau lawm tau nce mus rau 50%, thiab cov tsoos nickel-hlau thiab npib tsib xee. ntsev suav txog 17%.Nws cia siab tias los ntawm 2025, qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm cov nickel refined nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no thawj nickel ntau lawm yuav poob ntxiv.Tsis tas li ntawd, los ntawm kev xav ntawm Tuam Tshoj tus thawj cov khoom nickel qauv, kwv yees li 63% ntawm cov khoom yog NPI (nickel npua hlau), li 25% ntawm cov khoom yog refined npib tsib xee, thiab li ntawm 12% ntawm cov khoom yog nickel ntsev.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev hloov pauv hauv cov chaw lag luam, cov lag luam ntiag tug tau dhau los ua lub zog tseem ceeb hauv cov khoom siv nickel hauv Suav teb thiab txawm tias lub ntiaj teb.Raws li kev txheeb cais los ntawm Nickel Industry Ceg, ntawm 677,000 tons ntawm thawj nickel tso tawm hauv Suav teb xyoo 2021, tsib lub tuam txhab ntiag tug, suav nrog Shandong Xinhai, Qingshan Kev Lag Luam, Delong Nickel, Tangshan Kaiyuan, Suqian Xiangxiang, thiab Guangxi Yinyi, tsim thawj. npib tsib xee.suav rau 62.8%.Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev lag luam tawm txawv teb chaws, cov lag luam ntiag tug account rau ntau dua 75% ntawm cov lag luam nrog kev lag luam tawm txawv teb chaws, thiab ua tiav cov saw hlau ntawm cov xuab zeb nickel mine kev txhim kho-nickel-hlau-stainless steel ntau lawm tau tsim nyob rau hauv Indonesia.
Qhov xwm txheej "nickel futures" muaj qhov cuam tshuam loj rau kev ua lag luam
Kev cuam tshuam thiab teeb meem tshwm sim
Ua ntej, tus nqi ntawm LME npib tsib xee yav tom ntej tau nce siab heev txij lub Peb Hlis 7 txog rau 8th, nrog kev nce ntxiv ntawm 248% hauv 2 hnub, uas ncaj qha coj mus rau kev ncua ntawm LME yav tom ntej kev lag luam thiab kev nce ntxiv thiab poob ntawm Shanghai nickel ntawm Shanghai Futures. Txauv.Tus nqi yav tom ntej tsis tsuas yog poob nws qhov kev taw qhia tseem ceeb rau tus nqi ntawm qhov chaw, tab sis kuj tsim teeb meem thiab teeb meem rau cov lag luam los yuav cov khoom siv raw thiab kev tiv thaiv.Nws tseem cuam tshuam qhov kev tsim khoom ib txwm muaj thiab kev ua haujlwm ntawm npib tsib xee sab saud thiab qis qis, ua rau muaj kev puas tsuaj loj rau ntiaj teb npib tsib xee thiab lwm yam dej ntws thiab cov dej ntws.
Qhov thib ob yog qhov "nickel yav tom ntej xwm txheej" yog qhov tshwm sim ntawm qhov tsis muaj kev tswj hwm kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam, tsis muaj kev lag luam txaus ntshai ntawm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag yav tom ntej, kev tswj tsis txaus ntawm LME kev ua lag luam yav tom ntej, thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm thaj chaw thaj chaw. .Txawm li cas los xij, los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov xwm txheej sab hauv, qhov xwm txheej no tau nthuav tawm qhov teeb meem uas tam sim no sab hnub poob kev lag luam nyob deb ntawm qhov chaw tsim khoom thiab siv, tsis tuaj yeem ua tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm kev lag luam tiag tiag, thiab kev tsim cov nickel derivatives yav tom ntej tsis tau khaws cia. nrog rau kev txhim kho thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm kev lag luam.Tam sim no, kev lag luam tsim kho xws li sab hnub poob tsis yog cov neeg siv khoom loj ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau lossis cov neeg tsim khoom loj.Txawm hais tias cov txheej txheem kev tsim khoom lag luam yog thoob plaws ntiaj teb, feem ntau cov chaw nres nkoj warehouses thiab cov tuam txhab warehousing yog tswj los ntawm cov tub lag luam qub European.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, vim tsis muaj txoj hauv kev tswj hwm kev pheej hmoo zoo, Muaj kev phom sij zais thaum cov tuam txhab lag luam siv lawv cov cuab yeej yav tom ntej.Tsis tas li ntawd, txoj kev loj hlob ntawm npib tsib xee derivatives yav tom ntej tsis tau khaws cia, uas tseem tau ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam ntawm cov tuam txhab lag luam nickel ntsig txog peripheral thaum siv cov khoom muaj nqis khaws cia.
Txog Kev Txhim Kho Tuam Tshoj tus Nickel Supply Chain
Qee qhov kev tshoov siab los ntawm cov teeb meem kev nyab xeeb
Ua ntej, ua raws li cov kev xav hauv qab thiab ua qhov pib hauv kev tiv thaiv thiab tswj kev pheej hmoo.Kev lag luam hlau tsis-ferrous muaj cov yam ntxwv ntawm kev ua lag luam, kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb thiab nyiaj txiag.Yog li ntawd, kev lag luam kev lag luam yuav tsum txhim kho kev paub txog kev tiv thaiv kev pheej hmoo, tsim kom muaj kev xav hauv qab, thiab txhim kho cov ntawv thov qib ntawm cov cuab yeej tswj kev pheej hmoo.Cov tuam txhab lag luam yuav tsum hwm kev lag luam, ntshai kev lag luam, thiab tswj hwm lawv txoj haujlwm.Cov lag luam "tawm mus" yuav tsum paub meej txog cov kev cai lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, ua cov phiaj xwm daws teeb meem thaum muaj xwm txheej ceev, thiab zam kom tsis txhob raug tua thiab strangled los ntawm cov peev nyiaj txiag txawv teb chaws.Cov tuam txhab nyiaj txiag hauv Suav teb yuav tsum kawm los ntawm kev paub dhau los thiab cov lus qhia.
Qhov thib ob yog txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau nws, nws yog qhov yuav tsum tau ua tib zoo saib xyuas cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov txiaj ntsig tau zoo).Lub "nickel yav tom ntej xwm txheej" qhia txog qhov tseem ceeb thiab ceev ceev ntawm kev txhawb nqa thoob ntiaj teb kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev ua kom nrawm ntawm thoob ntiaj teb daim hlau ntawm txhuas, npib tsib xee, zinc thiab lwm yam.Raws li cov qauv tsim sab saum toj, yog tias lub teb chaws cov peev txheej tuaj yeem txais kev lag luam-taw qhia kev yuav khoom thiab kev muag khoom tus nqi qauv ntawm "txoj kev thoob ntiaj teb, kev sib koom ua ke, tus nqi sib pauv, thiab RMB denomination", nws yuav tsis tsuas tsim Tuam Tshoj cov duab ntawm kev lag luam ruaj khov. -oriented kev lag luam, tab sis kuj txhim khu Tuam Tshoj cov khoom lag luam pricing peev xwm.Nws kuj tseem tuaj yeem txo qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam Suav nyiaj txiag txawv teb chaws.Tsis tas li ntawd, nws yog ib qho tsim nyog los ntxiv dag zog rau kev tshawb fawb txog kev hloov pauv ntawm kev lag luam npib tsib xee, thiab nce kev cog qoob loo ntawm nickel derivative yav tom ntej ntau yam.
Txog Kev Txhim Kho Tuam Tshoj tus Nickel Supply Chain
Qee qhov kev tshoov siab los ntawm cov teeb meem kev nyab xeeb
Ua ntej, ua raws li cov kev xav hauv qab thiab ua qhov pib hauv kev tiv thaiv thiab tswj kev pheej hmoo.Kev lag luam hlau tsis-ferrous muaj cov yam ntxwv ntawm kev ua lag luam, kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb thiab nyiaj txiag.Yog li ntawd, kev lag luam kev lag luam yuav tsum txhim kho kev paub txog kev tiv thaiv kev pheej hmoo, tsim kom muaj kev xav hauv qab, thiab txhim kho cov ntawv thov qib ntawm cov cuab yeej tswj kev pheej hmoo.Cov tuam txhab lag luam yuav tsum hwm kev lag luam, ntshai kev lag luam, thiab tswj hwm lawv txoj haujlwm.Cov lag luam "tawm mus" yuav tsum paub meej txog cov kev cai lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, ua cov phiaj xwm daws teeb meem thaum muaj xwm txheej ceev, thiab zam kom tsis txhob raug tua thiab strangled los ntawm cov peev nyiaj txiag txawv teb chaws.Cov tuam txhab nyiaj txiag hauv Suav teb yuav tsum kawm los ntawm kev paub dhau los thiab cov lus qhia.
Qhov thib ob yog txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau nws, nws yog qhov yuav tsum tau ua tib zoo saib xyuas cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov txiaj ntsig tau zoo).Qhov "nickel yav tom ntej xwm txheej" qhia txog qhov tseem ceeb thiab ceev ceev ntawm kev txhawb nqa thoob ntiaj teb kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm Kev txhawb nqa thoob ntiaj teb daim hlau ntawm txhuas, npib tsib xee, zinc thiab lwm yam ntau yam tau nrawm dua.Raws li cov qauv tsim sab saum toj, yog tias lub teb chaws cov peev txheej tuaj yeem txais kev lag luam-taw qhia kev yuav khoom thiab kev muag khoom tus nqi qauv ntawm "txoj kev thoob ntiaj teb, kev sib koom ua ke, tus nqi sib pauv, thiab RMB denomination", nws yuav tsis tsuas tsim Tuam Tshoj cov duab ntawm kev lag luam ruaj khov. -oriented kev lag luam, tab sis kuj txhim khu Tuam Tshoj cov khoom lag luam pricing peev xwm.Nws kuj tseem tuaj yeem txo qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam Suav nyiaj txiag txawv teb chaws.Tsis tas li ntawd, nws yog ib qho tsim nyog los ntxiv dag zog rau kev tshawb fawb txog kev hloov pauv ntawm kev lag luam npib tsib xee, thiab nce kev cog qoob loo ntawm nickel derivative yav tom ntej ntau yam.
Post lub sij hawm: Apr-12-2022